02/05/12
Over the past week or so there have been a number of discussions about the viability of the Meeroo game. In general, those discussions devolve into complaints that prices on the "secondary" markets have crashed. This usually ends up in name-calling and finger pointing, with quite a bit of hand wringing that the company should "do something".
First off, let us be clear about terms. When we say "secondary" market, we mean THE market. Malevay no longer sells either living Meeroos or nests. While it has only been a few weeks since Malevay ceased selling Meeroos, their sales for months previous were so low that, effectively, there has not been a "primary" market for a very long time.
This indicates a success on Malevay's part. One of the primary goals of Meeroos was to reduce the need for "starters". At this point, no "starters" at all are sold. They have not just reduced the need; they have eliminated it.
Therefore, when we are complaining about dropping prices, we are referring to "THE" market, since there is only one.
Market prices are controlled by supply and demand. Most of the complaints about price drop are based upon the supply side. Being breedable, digital assets, the supply, quite naturally, grows.
When the supply is growing slower than demand, prices rise. However, if supply is growing and demand is not growing as quickly, or is dropping, prices must drop.
The question, then, is what is happening to the demand side of the Meeroo market. The answer: it is steadily dropping.
On any given day, there are approximately 525 FEWER living, breeding Meeroos than the previous day. This means that, on average, in a month, about 15,650 fewer Meeroos will be alive at the end of the month than were alive at the beginning. (Compare that to the current estimate of 115,000 living Meeroos.)
While a goodly portion of the loss in population is players reducing their stock, some of it is players getting completely out. Based upon the loss in breeding population, I am estimating about 370 players completely leave the game each month.
On any given day, about 60 new player accounts are created. However, those are simply new accounts. At 60 days in, only about 6 percent of those new accounts will be actively breeding Meeroos. This means that, in a given month, about 110 new players join the game.
The net loss in player population works out to be about 260 per month.
This means, not only is supply growing day-by-day, at a rate of about 10,800 nests, but we are also seeing a net loss of about nine players EVERY DAY.
So, can Meeroos be saved? Players will play; else, what is the point. Therefore, supply will always grow. If Meeroos are to be saved, what MUST be done is something to address the loss of players.
This is somewhere Malevay and the players, alike, can actually take action. However, Malevay must take the lead in promoting growth in the player base. Unless they do so, demand for Meeroos will continue to fall, and prices remain low, until, in not many more months, there will be no Meeroos game at all.
Yes, we're awaiting the release of the Nocturnals. And, yes, that will help. But, by themselves, the Nocturnals are only a short-term solution. For consistent growth, which a healthy market requires, the company will need the equivalent of one such each and every month.
So, I will put the question and bow back out ...
What else can the company do? What offers and promotional programs could they implement which would promote growth? What, if any, changes to the current products should they make
to promote growth? Or, should we resign ourselves to the continuing, slow, demise of the Meeroo game (with only a brief respite from the release of the Nocturnals)? Can the Meeroo Game be Saved?