Current estimated Breeding Population: 140708
as of 2011-10-20 22:00:03

Net gain(loss) over previous week: (1584)

Estimated active players: 2931
based on 48 breeding Meeroos per player

See graphic for population analysis.

See graphic for cycle-to-cycle change analysis.

Prior week estimated Breeding Population: 142292
as of 2011-10-15 22:00:00

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Highlights

* Significant shift in population trend estimate.

* No significant change in rate-of-change estimate.

* Estimated turn-around date now November 5.

Comments on this week's graphs

On the cycle-change graph: The apparent trend change discussed last week has yet to appear. Once again, though, the most-recent data indicates a new trend may be developing. If we examine only the last four days, the rate of decline has reversed from easing about 110 to deepening about 75 more Meeroos lost over the prior day.

This pattern in the last four days, however, was folded into the guidance by shifting the start of the trend period back one day. This resulting in a increase in statistical confidence rather than a major shift in the estimate. A new trend may, again, be developing and the next week should determine whether the general trend of the past few weeks continues or a new trend in the rate of population change has arrived. Given past performance, however, it seems unlikely a new trend is actually developing and the past four days are simply normal variation.

The primary effect of the deepening rate of decline over the past four days has been to shift the estimated turn-around date to November 5.

On the population graph: As the date approaches, the earlier estimates of the current phase of decline ending on approximately October 31st has been refined. If current trends continue, as seems highly likely given their performance over the past several weeks, the current decline in Meeroo population should end on, or about, November 5th. Original estimates following that date were based upon release of Chapter 2. With that no longer appearing likely before the end of the year, populations are expected to grow at moderate rates over the remainder of the year, reaching a peak of approximately 165,000 by year's end.

The trend estimate for breeding population has shifted to increase statistical confidence. The start date for this trend period is now October 6th. This change resulted in a marked decrease in the rate of decline. As the November 5th inflection point approaches, statistical confidence will degrade rapidly, resulting in similar shifts in the population trend estimate. These shifts will likely continue for four or five more weeks until population growth is well-established.

Player population, however, as represented by the rate of new account creation, remains lackluster with only about 100 new accounts per day. As a result, average stock sizes have not been re-sampled in the past two weeks, and the current estimated average of 48 breeding Meeroos per active player is continued. Player accounts will be re-sampled sometime over the next month to determine if that estimate should be adjusted.

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METHODOLOGY

The data for these graphs are captured at 22:00:00 SLT nightly. The difference in sequence numbers is the nest production for the previous day and represents starters, limited editions, and births from breeding.

These graphs should be considered a "Trailing Indicators". While believed accurate, the estimates and trends most likely follow actual values by some period; at least six days, perhaps as large as eleven days.

The estimated breeding population is twice the total nest production over a five-day period. This represents two parents per nest. Immature and Elderly Meeroos, and MeePets, are not included. Elderly Meeroos and MeePets are not considered significant. Immature Meeroos will phase into the population over the next five days. Starters have no parents; but, since less than 25 starters, on average, are sold daily, this error is not considered significant.

The cycle-to-cycle change is the difference in estimated population for that date when compared with the population estimate from five days previous. This represents the change over a complete cycle for all five personality types.

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The estimated number of active players is based upon a consensus estimate of the average number of Meeroos, per player, being approximately 48 (6 Homes, fully populated). This represents only actively breeding Meeroos; it does not include MeePets, Elderly or Immature Meeroos.

At present, approximately 60,064 player accounts exist. Many, perhaps even most, of those have zero births, zero released, and zero regard. Approximately 100 new player accounts are created on an average day (although this rate has been slowly decreasing over the past several months).

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For the Meeroo Breeding Population graphic:

The Purple Dots connected by a dashes are the actual nest production values, per day.

The smoothed solid Blue line represents the estimated breeding population. In mathematical terms, this also the five-day moving average for nest production.

The Red trend line represents the rate of decline over the past several days. The start-date for this phase is presently 2011-10-06.

The statistical confidence in this trend, shown on the chart, is the probability the actual value matches the trend-line estimate.

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For the Cycle-to-Cycle Change graphic:

In mathematical terms: this graph is the First Derivative function of the raw population graph. It represents the rate of change. Changes in this graph indicate acceleration or deceleration of the rate of change in the raw population estimates.

The horizontal Green Axis represents No Change from the estimated population five days (one complete cycle) previous. Values above the Green Axis indicate an increase in population; values below indicate a decrease. The area above the axis, below the red line, will always be larger than the area below the axis, above the line. The two areas will become equal only when no Meeroos remain in the game.

The Red Dots are the actual data points. The smoothed Red Line connecting them approximates inter-day change.

The Blue trend line represents the change in the average rate of change over the past several days. The start-date for this period is presently 2011-09-13.

The statistical confidence in this trend, shown on the chart, is the probability the actual value matches the trend-line estimate.