With the population estimates finally beginning to show some lessening of the decline, as seen by the rate of decline steadily decreasing, it's time to make some prognostications.

If current trends continue, as seems likely based upon their performance over the past few weeks the current phase of declining populations will come to an end on October 31st. At that point, the breeding population should reach a low of approximately 139,500. Thereafter, if current trends continue, with no factors changing, we'll enter a growth phase.

This timing is interesting.

The Dryads certainly had some effect. After the short, quick run-up due to their release, players, seemingly en masse, began pulling back.

The impending release of an upgrade/expansion certainly also enters into the equation. While it seems highly unlikely that large numbers of players should have successfully planned their reductions to smoothly pull back in preparation for the release, that is where we will find ourselves.

This leads to my first recommendation to Malevay Studios: Under no circumstances should you release early. Your players' breeding programs are still contracting and will continue to contract until October 31st. An early release will push against the last vestiges of the decline; most likely resulting in panic reductions. (We'll see some anyway, but why make it worse?) A release late in the day (SLT) October 31st, however, will coincide with your player's having made all planned reductions and being fully prepared for renewed expansion in their breeding stock sizes.

Examining past history, mainly the Dryads, we can see there will be a 5 day period following release where breeding populations will drop markedly. This, most likely, is not an actual reduction, but represents release of older breeding stock and replacement with large numbers of immature stock from the new release. While all trends indicate we should enter a growth phase on October 31st, release on that date will, instead, mean a drop over the next five days. I am predicting that drop will be approximately 2,500 breeding Meeroos and will bottom-out at a population estimate of 137,000.

After that change-out drop-off, we should see a long-term, rapid run-up in populations. For a prediction on the rate of increase, I look to the first 60 days following shipment of pre-release packs. I don't expect the run-up will go the full 60 days (it might, but I feel it unlikely). Unlike the period following pre-release shipment, players, in general, now have a far better understanding of the processes, resource requirements, and costs. So, I expect the rate of increase to be about 2/3rd of the rate observed in the early days: about 1500 per day. I also expect the peak will be lower: probably a bit above the peak of 170,000 seen after the release of the Dryads, but below the 190,000 peak seen from the pre-release packs. So, I'm estimating population will grow from a low of 137,000 to a peak of 180,000 at a rate of 1500 per day; meaning the growth phase should last approximately 30 days, ending approximately November 10th.

After that run-up, there should be a brief over-correction lasting 5 to 10 days where players realize they've over-expanded. I'm predicting a drop of about 15,000 for that over-correction, leading to a low of about 165,000 on about November 20th.

Finally, then, we'll enter a very long-term cyclic period, first recovering a few thousand, then slowly sinking back to the now-apparent support-level of about 140,000. One compete cycle should take about 60 days.

This leads to my second recommendation to Malevay Studios: plan your next major release to come, again, when the new support level is reached. I'm estimating that will be mid-February, 2012. That would mean you'd be able to follow the same pattern as with this release: special editions for the weeks leading up to the Holiday, followed be a release on, or close to, the Holiday.

My final recommendation is based upon the lack of growth in the player base. Following the release, you'll have a month or so of strong growth. That will be a propitious time to do some marketing to attract new players. Rapid growth usually means rapid profits during the boom. That, alone, should attract some. Additional marketing and promotion can leverage both that effect and the general excitement over new features and products.

These recommendations are based upon my strong belief that your products will do best if you time your activities to go WITH the cycles, and your players will be best able to take advantage of your upgrades and expansions if you do so rather than ignore the dynamics and potentially attempt to buck the trend. Furthermore, using the current pattern of specials-then-release will lend predictability which also enhance customer acceptance.