09/30/11
Current estimated Breeding Population: 147204
as of 2011-09-30 22:00:00
Net gain(loss) over previous week: (4840)
Estimated active players: 3067
see Comments
See graphic for population analysis.
See graphic for cycle-to-cycle change analysis.
Prior week estimated Breeding Population: 152044
as of 2011-09-23 22:00:00
The data for these graphs are captured at 22:00:00 SLT nightly. The difference in sequence numbers is the nest production for the previous day and represents starters, limited editions, and births from breeding.
These graphs should be considered a "Trailing Indicators". While believed accurate, the estimates and trends most likely follow actual values by some period; at least five days, perhaps as large as ten days.
The estimated breeding population is twice the total nest production over a five-day period. This represents two parents per nest. Immature and Elderly Meeroos, and MeePets, are not included. Elderly Meeroos and MeePets are not considered significant. Immature Meeroos will phase into the population over the next five days. Starters have no parents; but, since less than 100 starters, on average, are sold daily, this error is not considered significant.
The cycle-to-cycle change is the difference in estimated population for that date when compared with the population estimate from five days previous. This represents the change over a complete cycle for all five personality types.
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The estimated number of active players is based upon a consensus estimate of the average number of Meeroos, per player, being approximately 48 (6 Homes, fully populated). This represents only actively breeding Meeroos; it does not include MeePets, Elderly or Immature Meeroos.
At present, approximately 56,000 player accounts exist. Many, perhaps even most, of those have zero births, zero released, and zero regard. Approximately 125 new player accounts are created on an average day (although this rate has been slowly decreasing over the past several months).
The data and estimates indicate:
- New-player retention is extremely low: while many create accounts, few go on to actively breed. This indicates many find the game to difficult to learn. Success, especially early on, is marginal without significant investment in high-quality breeding stock.
- Player churn rate is extremely low: those who actively breed tend to do so long-term. Given the relatively low rate of return on investment, this indicates those who actively breed tend to do so for non-financial reasons.
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For the Meeroo Breeding Population graphic:
The Purple Dots connected by a dashes are the actual nest production values, per day.
The smoothed solid Blue line represents the estimated breeding population. In mathematical terms, this also the five-day moving average for nest production.
The Red trend line represents the rate of decline over the past several days, since the end of the Dryad Recovery. The start-date for this phase is presently 2011-09-05.
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For the Cycle-to-Cycle Change graphic:
In mathematical terms: this graph is the First Derivative function of the raw population graph. It represents the rate of change. Changes in this graph indicate acceleration or deceleration of the rate of change in the raw population estimates.
The horizontal Green Axis represents No Change from the estimated population five days (one complete cycle) previous.
The Red Dots are the actual data points. The smoothed Red Line connecting them approximates inter-day change.
Values above the Green Axis indicate an increase in population; values below indicate a decrease.
The area above the axis, below the red line, will always be larger than the area below the axis, above the line. The two areas will become equal only when no Meeroos remain in the game.
