Current estimated Breeding Population: 157560
as of 2011-09-16 22:00:01

Net gain(loss) over previous week: (5346)

See graphic for population analysis.

See graphic for cycle-to-cycle change analysis.

Prior week estimated Breeding Population: 163396
as of 2011-09-09 22:00:03

The data for these graphs are captured at 22:00:00 SLT nightly. The difference in sequence numbers is the nest production for the previous day and represents starters, limited editions, and births from breeding.

These graphs should be considered a "Trailing Indicators". While believed accurate, the estimates and trends most likely follow actual values by some period; at least five days, perhaps as large as ten days.

The estimated breeding population is twice the total nest production over a five-day period. This represents two parents per nest. Immature Meeroos and MeePets are not included. MeePets are not considered significant. Immature Meeroos will phase into the population over the next five days. Starters have no parents; but, since only 100 starters, on average, are sold daily, this error is not considered significant.

The cycle-to-cycle change is the difference in estimated population for that date when compared with the population estimate from five days previous. This represents the change over a complete cycle for all five personality types.

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Dryads are starters as well. Since the beginning of Dryad sales, the starter sales have been tracked at 22:00 as well. These nests are eliminated from the daily nest production to arrive at the estimate of the breeding population size. Five to ten days later those Dryad nests will begin to produce nests and be included in the breeding population estimate.

As of 2011-09-16 Dryad nests number approximately 81443 and sales are estimated to have dropped to approximately 300 Dryad nests per day.

Present results from Dryad offspring indicate Dryads did not succeed in reversing the downward trend in breeding population. Any gain from Dryad breeding has now been eliminated either by reduction in Dryads, or (more likely) by corresponding elimination of older stock. The population and trends have now returned to pre-Dryad levels.

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For the Meeroo Breeding Population graphic:

The Purple Dots connected by a dashes are the actual nest production values, per day.

The smoothed solid Blue line represents the estimated breeding population. In mathematical terms, this also the five-day moving average for nest production.

The Green trend line represents the growth rate from Pre-Release through the first 60 days when the initial starters aged out and the general population entered an extended period of decline. The end-date for this phase is 2011-07-16.

The Red trend line represents the rate of decline over the past several days, since the end of the Dryad Recovery. The start-date for this phase is presently 2011-09-05.

The Pink trend line represents the rate of decline since the minor recovery following the duplicate nest exploit. In previous reports, this was the "short term" trend. The start-date for this phase of decline is 2011-08-15.

The Orange trend line represents the rate of decline since the recovery following the aging out of the initial starters. The start-date for this phase of decline is 2011-08-02.

The Yellow trend line represents the rate of decline since the end of the initial growth phase. The start-date for this phase of decline is 2011-07-11.

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For the Cycle-to-Cycle Change graphic:

The horizontal Green Axis represents No Change from the estimated population five days (one complete cycle) previous.

The Red Dots are the action data points. The smoothed Red Line connecting them approximates inter-day change.

Values above the Green Axis indicate an increase in population; values below indicate a decrease.

The area above the axis, below the red line, will always be larger than the area below the axis, above the line. The two areas will become equal only when no Meeroos remain in the game.