Current estimated Breeding Population: 162996
as of 2011-09-02 22:00:01

Net gain(loss) over previous week: (2042)

See graphic for population trend analysis.

Prior week estimated Breeding Population: 165898
as of 2011-08-26 22:00:05

The data for this graph is captured at 22:00:00 SLT nightly. The difference in sequence numbers is the nest production for the previous day and represents starters, limited editions, and births from breeding.

This graph should be considered a "Trailing Indicator". While believed accurate, the estimates and trends most likely follow actual values by some period; perhaps as large as five days.

The estimated breeding population is twice the total nest production over a five-day period. This represents two parents per nest. Immature Meeroos and MeePets are not included. MeePets are not considered significant. Immature Meeroos will phase into the population over the next five days. Starters have no parents; but, since only 100 starters, on average, are sold daily, this error is not considered significant.

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Dryads are starters as well. Since the beginning of Dryad sales, the starter sales have been tracked at 22:00 as well. These nests are eliminated from the daily nest production to arrive at the estimate of the breeding population size. Five to ten days later those Dryad nests will begin to produce nest and be included in the breeding population estimate. The effect of that can be seen on the last two days of the graph.

With this report, daily numbers will no longer be published.

As of 2011-09-06 Dryad nests number approximately 76281 and sales are estimated to have dropped to approximately 1400 Dryad nests per day.

Initial results from Dryad offspring indicate Dryads did not succeed in reversing the downward trend in breeding population, but have bumped the population back up to the point it was at approximately two weeks ago.

I will re-evaluate the trends next week with an eye to re-assigning the start date for the short-term decline to approximately 2011-08-31; or freezing the current short-term decline and adding a new trend line.

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The Purple Dots connected by a dashes are the actual nest production values, per day.

The smoothed solid Blue line represents the estimated breeding population. In mathematical terms, this also the five-day moving average for nest production.

The Green trend line represents the growth rate from Pre-Release through the first 60 days when the initial starters aged out and the general population entered an extended period of decline. The end-date for this phase is 2011-07-16.

The Red trend line represents the rate of decline over the past four days. The start-date for this phase is presently 2011-08-22.

The Orange trend line represents the rate of decline since the recovery following the aging out of the initial starters. The start-date for this phase of decline is 2011-08-02.

The Yellow trend line represents the rate of decline since the end of the initial growth phase. The start-date for this phase of decline is 2011-07-12.