In recent posts I've commented that the recent wide-spread discovery of Lotus indicates something changed which caused too many to discover the trait too soon.

Others have commented upon the need for 'rare' to remain 'rare'.

I thought it might help to examine what, if any, effect delayed discovery might have upon populations.

For this simulation, I run two parallel breeding programs. For both, discoveries occur at the same time. For both, the breeders eventually back off: perhaps another trait was discovered, perhaps prices have dropped; whatever the cost breeders in both programs make the same decisions at the same time.

The only difference between the programs is that in one (the blue model) breeders see the discovery immediately and begin to exploit it. In the other program (the red model) some number of breeders should have discovered the trait earlier but, since it was not yet released, were forced to wait.

The results of my simulation can be seen graphically.

Both models begin with the point of actual discovery by the breeders.

As we can see, delaying release until after it was discovered has a marked effect upon both the rate of growth in the population, and the size of the eventual "stable population".

My conclusion is that delaying the release of new traits until some time after the point where they would have been discovered has a marked effect upon the "rarity" of that trait in the general population. In addition, the resulting increased rate of production increases the rate at which the growing population has a more-quickly negative effect upon various market forces.